NFL DFS 2019 – Week 4 – 092919


Over/Under 45 BAL -7

I don’t understand this line, BAL by 7. The 45 points seems low unless Vegas thinks that BAL is going to win 35 to 10. BAL has played exceptional so far this year and lost to THE KC Chiefs by 5. A TD away from beating the all powerful Chiefs. And Cleveland has scored 29 points total in their first 3 games combined, 2 of which were losses, and their one win coming against the lowly Jets. BAL scored 28 against the chiefs. CLE CBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams and S Morgan Burnett are all questionable and so Lamar Jackson even on an average day should be able to get Marquis Brown plenty of great looks. The Ravens Defense is top notch too, so without injuries to any of their star players, BAL should win this game by at least 2 TDs I like Lamar and Hollywood Marquis Brown to do well. In this matchup, I don’t like anyone on the CLE side of the ball.


Over/Under 47.5 HOU -4

Although HOU is favored by vegas in this game by 4, the eye test says CAR should take this game. Young QB Kyle Allen had an excellent start to the season with 3 TDs, even though he played against a trash secondary last week. The HOU defense is barely better in opponents passing yards per game than the ARI team CAR played last week. I like DJ Moore in a bounce back spot and Greg Olsen again this week. Olsen has a great target floor so far this season. On the HOU offensive side of the ball Will Fuller should be in for a big game. Hopkins is always a decent play because of the volume. I’m probably just going to have members of the CAR offense in this game and Fuller at most.


Over/Under 44.5 LAC -14.5

Another week that the Dolphins are still in the league, what a blessing for them. The line is huge, 14.5 and LAC should easily breeze past that. Ekeler is REALLY expensive and he should be the most motivated back in the league right now with Melvin Gordon set to take the reins back starting next week. The problem is that he’s SOOO expensive. Can he justify that 8k pricetag, yes. Especially against a poor Miami team? That would certainly help him. The LAC RB2 is out and there are rumblings that Melvin Gordon has decided that he has time in his busy life to play this game and just might serve as RB2 this week until he’s back on top next week. Coaching staff hinted that their 4th string RB Pope is going to play RB2 snaps but…that sounds more like a pissing contest response than trying to win a game or more importantly giving your RB1 a good chance to get his legs back underneath him against an easy opponent. That is a major concern. It’s questionable if Gordon plays. If he plays, do you want Ekeler? If Gordon plays, then LAC is going to want to see him on the field and it’ll probably be more of a 70/30 split. It’s tough to pay a priced up guy who’s about to lose volume. Ekeler is good. He’s gotta be motivated, he’s just in a tough spot at his current price. If you want him, take him. I won’t have any, and if Gordon doesn’t play, Ekeler should get close if not exceed value, but if Gordon takes that 25 to 35 percent of snaps that the RB2 role has been taking on then he might not workout as well as you might like. MIA gives it up to the top targets on each team, so Keenan Allen could have a big week this week as well. The problem with teams that are this bad is that its hard to guess how their opponents score, cause it literally could be anyone at any position, with relative ease. Keenan Allen is probably due for 10 targets, and he’ll probably catch one in the Endzone, that’s probably his floor – 8 catches and a TD, especially since his WR2 is out with an injury. I’m not sure they need him to do much more than that. LAC should want to get reps for the rest of the offense that really needs to get going like Inman who is their WR2 in this game and then of course Gordon. If you get your points in before LAC starts coasting, you’ll be golden. If not, good luck to you sir. 

On the other side of the ball, everyone sucks, we know this, but what the Dolphins have needed 3 games to realize is that they still have incentive bonuses that they want to obtain. At least through the rest of the first half of the season where their incentive metrics still seem manageable, individual players might put in more effort than they have so far. The MIA QBs are terrible, the running backs are not good and the only guy you want to think about is Preston Williams, their WR1. He’s good. He’s really good. He smells the incentive cash and i think he’s already promised a cut to the QB squad because they’re peppering him with targets. He’s worth a shot in a GPP, at 3900, that’s a really solid price for a WR1 who got 12 targets last week. I kinda think he gets a TD this week. Their one TD.

Recap: Keenan Allen and Chargers D.


Over/Under 42.5 NE -7

Vegas is drunk. NE by only 7 points against Buffalo? You sir, are out of order. NE offense is too solid from every angle. Think about this, their starting RB1 is struggling and they’ve game-planned around it to make it a non-issue. Rex Burkhead is playing excellent but he’s questionable and James White who is going to take some of his carries/targets is back and ready for action this week. 4900 for White is kinda pricey for a backup RB who may not need to do too much. He should get some decent goal line opportunities.The BUF run D is pretty good so it’s hard to say what his role looks like going in. I like a combination of Edelman and Gordon to do all the damage. One of those should score a couple of TDs and based on RZ looks, it could be either as they’re both tied at 4 each (followed by James White with 3 – and he missed a week). 

On the BUF side, the young QB Allen is growing before our very eyes. The NE defensive coordinator is about to blow his freakin mind, but he’s started off well at least. I’m a huge Beasley fan and I like to roster him often because the volume is there and he’s due for a TD, but I don’t think this is the week. He’ll probably have 7 catches for 50ish yards. 

This point total is sooo low. 3rd lowest. I won’t touch anything in this game other than Edelman/Gordon and the NE Defense.


Over/Under 46 ATL -3.5

I think this is a true pick-em game. TEN has a punishing run game, ATL has a poor run defense. Both passing defenses are actually in the Top 10 of least passing yards allowed per game. But ATL has Julio and some pretty decent pieces around him that can help keep the double teams to a minimum. On the TEN side, I kinda like Derrick Henry coming off a poor game, because the Titans should try to keep the ball out of the hands of the ATL offense and pound the rock. Delanie Walker is the play though. He’s got 4x more RZ looks than anyone else on the offense and he’s playing well. On the ATL side, I like Julio in this game, and Definitely Calvin Ridley. Ridley who had a terrible week 3. The point total is middle of the line and i think either ATL big time receiver could do well, its just I don’t think either in a spot to play well Enough to get the points you need. Both probably hover at or around 20 fpts with a TD each and so so yards. I like Walker.


Over/Under 45.5 IND -7

IND may be without receiver Ty Hilton who left last week early and hasn’t practiced at all this week. If so then Mack gets plenty of carries and Ebron or Doyle has a good game. Doyle played on 69% of the snaps last week vs %51 for Ebron so I like Doyle to do a little better. The problem with this offense is that if Ty misses, the rest of their receiving corps is at best mediocre and the only trustworthy receivers are their two Tight Ends. So they’d probably both get more snaps in 2 TE sets which is going to stack the box for Mack to run through much less spacing. Without Hilton, I don’t like the IND offense much and I don’t really like this game. Cain or Campbell or Pascal on the IND receivers list could do well, but they literally haven’t shown a thing yet and there’s been opportunity for one of those dudes to secure the WR2 spot. 

On the OAK side, Waller is going to get the ball and so should Ty Williams. I like these two if i’m going to play this game. Williams is expensive at 5700 and Waller at 5200 is pricey as well. Either could do well, but its hard to say. Waller is great this year, looks like a stud TE the league will enjoy for years to come but today it kinda feels like drafting him would be buying high when he’s due for a down game. If you pick him, I get it. Great talent. I won’t have too much of him, but he has the opportunity.


Over/Under 49 NYG -3

WAS played Monday night so the Giants had one more day to rest and gameplan. AP has an opportunity to have more than the 12 carries he saw in week 3, but not sure its enough to be too relevant. WR1 Terry McLaurin has a hamstring issue that will likely limit him in the game. Both Tre Quinn and Paul Richardson stand to capitalize on a few more targets heading their way. The NYG defense isn’t great so one or both of those guys could do well. 

On the NYG offensive side of the ball, the industry is talking up Wayne Gallman with Barkley out this week. The only problem with Gallman is that he’s not good at all. But that’s the only problem at least. Both Sterling Shepard and Engram should have a ton of volume and I kinda think that little Daniel Jones sneaks in for another TD this week. I kinda like the idea of stacking this game because its a little sneaky and the target shares seem so condensed. A solid stack of 5300 Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard  (5800) and run it back with 3700 Paul Richardson, seems pretty good. Tre Quinn at 3000 could easily sneak into the stack and surpass value if the right chain of events occurs.


Over/Under 55 KC -6.5

This game has the highest total on the board. We have to have a piece of this game. KC is incredible on the offensive side of the ball so Mahomes is always a good pick. I think KC wins by more than the 6.5 line with Watkins playing awesome and Kelce following close behind with his RZ target market share boosting him. 

DET gets to go against a poor KC defense so the pillars of that offense could pretty well also. A lot of people are talking up Matt Stafford and he’s an OK play. I don’t think he’s very good as a player in general so I won’t have him at all but I do like Golladay to get a ton of targets and a sprinkle of Kerryon Johnson. I wish Kerryon got more catches in the backfield, he’s good enough to make things happen with those. Hockenson is due for a bounce back but he only plays 66% of the snaps last week and i’m not sure that DET has decided what his role is. At 3300 he’s an intriguing GPP play though. 

Mahomes. Watkins. Kerryon. Golladay. And a sprinkle of TJ Hockenson.


Over/Under 49 LAR -9.5

This game is tied for the second highest game total on the slate. Any game with a projected total nearing 50 points is certainly one we want to target. The TB offense is finding its way to score but not yet how to win. Winston is always boom or bust, even though he has one of the best set of receivers in the league. OJ Howard is due for a bounce back game and Mike Evans with 15 targets last week is obviously who they want to receive the ball. Chris Godwin is emerging this year but I think Evans is going to take some of his early high target share. 

On the Rams side of the ball, the 9.5 favorited Rams, I like Kupp, it seems like they’re really trying to get the ball in his hands at all spots on the field. Woods is due for a bounce back game as well. I’m not too big of a fan of Cooks this week, but I do like Woods and Kupp


Over/under 48 SEA -5

High total game. Russell Wilson is definitely chalk at 6100  As is TE Will Dissley at 3600 and Lockett at 6300. He had 14 targets last week and ARI gave up 12 targets to the same WR1 position last week, so he’s in position. I kinda feel like drafting Wilson is chasing his 406 yards from last week but that price is still pretty good. I can’t imagine a situation where he doesnt get you 25 points. 

On the other side of the ball, David Johnson has a good opportunity to do well, 6800 is pretty solid if he maintains the volume in carries and targets and gets in for a TD. Kirk and Fitzgerald get such a high volume that it’s hard not to have them in the player pool priced in at 5100 and 5600 respectively. At this point, either one of them could get WR1 snaps in any given week. The SEA pass defense concerns me though against a young QB. I like Kyler Murray in general, just not in this game.


Over/Under 38 CHI -1.5

I like MIN to win this game. CHI played Monday so they have one less day to rest and I think the MIN offense is that much better than the CHI offense despite how good the CHI D is. This is one of the lowest totals on the board, and I like the underdog so its hard to even touch a defense here, unless I go with MIN

The offensive scheme for the MIN offense is going to hit a roadblock today when the CHI pass defense decreases the effectiveness of Dalvin Cook. at least on the ground. He should get a lot of targets in the air, I’d probably expect somewhere around 10. I like Thielen for the easy targets too. I’m completely off of Diggs, i think CHI contains him. 

The CHI offense isn’t good, and a lot of that has to do with Trubisky still making rookie mistakes. I think Trey Burton is the only guy on this side of the ball that stands to have a good day. Cook is going to be less effective in the ground game yardage wise but he’s still going to run the clock for MIN and when CHI does have the ball on the offense I just expect Trubisky to rush through his progressions against a stout MIN passing defense and then hit the TE for the easy completions. The game total is too low for me to expect too much out of Burton or anyone else for that matter. I’m going to have Burton and Thielen in my player pool but probably won’t use too much of them.


Over/Under 37.5 DEN -3

Lowest point total of the week projection. I think JAC plays well though. I like Fournette and I like the idea of stacking him with the JAC Defense. He’s getting a ton of carries and targets too! Westbrook is due for a 100 yard performance and this might be just the spot. 

I don’t like DEN at all in this game.


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