DET @ GB
Over/Under 46 GB -3.5
Betting Summary
Alright, it’s Monday Night Showdown time! The Packers come into this game shimmering with confidence after their dominant performance against Dallas last week and the Lions are coming off of a bye. On the betting front, the popular action is on the over. The total between these teams has gone Over in 6 out of the last 7 occasions according to Forbes. GB is probably the better team overall with both Aarons playing well but they are without their WR1 in Adams and DET has spent the last 2 weeks watching film and gameplanning to prepare for this game. My money is on the lions. The DET defense is more informed than any other defense going into a game against the Packers so far this season and GB just isn’t healthy enough to make it a shootout. As a result, I think DET covers the spread and actually wins this one.
Game Breakdown
*League Rankings through Week 5. Rankings are measured in yards
DET Rush O 13 GB Rush D 26
DET Pass O 7 GB Pass D 14
DET Rush D 20 GB Rush O 14
DET Pass D 29 GB Pass O 23
Overall this is a fairly even matchup. Last week the Packers shutout RB1 Elliott but they allowed 14 targets to the WR1 and 14 Targets to the WR2 of the Cowboys. In the two weeks prior they’ve let RB1 Howard run for 2 TDs and Phillip Lindsay run for 2 TDs as well. I think that’ll be the story in this one. The Packers are going to do a good job of defending the top offensive weapon on the other side but the second option is going to do well. On DET, the primary offensive option is RB1 Kerryon Johnson who ran the ball 26 times in their last contest and their 2nd option is Kenny Golladay. Kenny is going to get himself some looks as will RZ threat blossoming superstar TE TJ Hockenson. Marvin Jones could see some decent looks but TJ and Kenny should see the bulkload. TJ is playing against a GB squad that generally does well against the TE position, but he’s probably the most or second most athletic TE they’ve faced thus far.
On the GB side of the ball, the Packers look good. Their defensive line looks good. Their secondary looks improved at least and their scheme on defense overall is better. The only problem is they’re playing against a well-rested DET offense playing well also. The Lions D has been giving it up to the slot receiver so Allison should get plenty of targets. Aaron Jones DOMINATED the Dallas D last week and although he’ll be popular this week as a result, he should be able to get enough targets in the passing game to help his team against the Lions D. Aaron Rodgers is a fine play, not my favorite, but he’s fine. I think the Lions scheme well for MVS and he has a down game. Graham is a solid punt play; he’s tied for 2nd in RZ targets with 5.
Player Pool
Captain Favorite
Matthew Stafford – 9600
Kenny Golladay – 9400
Median Player Pool
Aaron Jones – 11400
Kerryon Johnson – 8600
Aaron Rodgers – 11600
TJ Hockenson – 5400
Punt Picks
Jimmy Graham
K Matt Prater
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