Weather doesn’t appear to be an issue this week but expensive tight ends in prime spots will be. If we can get on the right TE and choose the right value RBs this week we’ll give ourselves a huge chance at good money. I had just enough time to break down the first 3 games on the slate and then got the player pool out from the rest of the games. I’m not sure what to do with those 3 games but I thought I’d post here in case it helps you all somehow.
TEN @ IND
Over/Under 51 IND -3.5
I don’t really understand the total here. These two teams played a couple of weeks ago and the game total was 51 points, which was very much on the higher end of expected outcomes. That came with Indy scoring 34 and I wouldn’t expect Philip Rivers to have the same kind of success in a run-back matchup. Everything else being equal, these two teams are not going to have a game total above 50 points more often than not. This seems like a stay away game from a DFS perspective other than a play or two. The under feels pretty realistic.
Derrick Henry is going to get his 20 carries and then what? Even if he gets a hundred yards, as we saw two weeks ago against this team, that amounted to 14.9 fpts. At 7900, that just doesn’t make sense. Every possible thing would have to go right for Henry and every possible thing would have to go wrong for the Indy defense to make him a Great play this week. Henry hitting 20 fpts isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but at that price, we’ll need 30.
This offense just doesn’t make sense this week. Again, I keep going back to their game two weeks ago because it’s going to be very similar to that. There’s going to be a few different nuances but ultimately each team is going to try to do what they want to do on offense and the Colts defense is likely going to hold up and the Titans’ isn’t.
I don’t like the Tennessee offense at all in this game. If you want to throw a dart: reconsider. If you have to throw a dart because you’re some huge Titans fan, you can look towards either of the tight ends: Jonnu Smith 4100 or Anthony Firkser 2600. When they suck, you’ll only have wasted a small amount of your salary.
As I was writing this, news came down that Jonathan Taylor will be out of this game. That puts Nyheim Hines in prime position to have himself a solid outing. He’s priced at 4600 and all he needs is volume any given week to be a PPR monster with his quality in the passing game. Without Taylor in the mix, Hines should be on the field more often and get reps running and an uptick in reps in the passing game. Last time these two teams played he had 28.5 fpts. That would usually scare me off of him because as the second back in the rotation that kind of outcome isn’t often repeatable. He’s the primary RB now in this matchup and that changes things. He’s probably going to be highly owned but he’s a good play and at that price, as long as he stays healthy, he shouldn’t have any issue producing how we need him to.
This is a run first offense and as a result I’m off of Rivers and I’m off of the WR/TEs. Rivers spreads the ball around too much to feel good about Pittman or Hilton or anyone else on this offense to be an important factor in the game. Phillip Rivers has scored 12.68 fpts or less in half of his games this season. Let that sink in, 12.68 fpts in 5 out of 10 games. This is not good news for that passing offense and it’s great news for Hines.
ARI @ NE
Over/Under 49.5 ARI -2.5
From a betting perspective this is a stay away game. The Patriots are not a good football team but they’re a home dog playing against a QB who’s not 100%. Anything could happen in this game.
Kyler Murray is priced at 8200 and this pricing does not well enough take the injury and the Pats D into consideration. Pending he makes it through this game without aggravating his shoulder injury, Murray should be fine dancing around a little bit on the ground but he’ll have his work cut out for him in the passing game. Kirk and Hopkins should see decent shadow coverage and with Fitzgerald out (who hasn’t really done anything), Andy Isabella (who also hasn’t really done anything) will be in his stead as the top receiving option out of the slot. At 3000, Isabella is one of your best dart throws of the week. He’s going to have the easiest coverage and the low adot passes, which again, is great if Murray struggles with the shoulder. I’m not sure what his upside is exactly but he has had 3 targets in the RZ this season and caught 2 of 3 and both were TDs.
No one has told the Cardinals about the TE position, so I’m certainly not going there this week.
The ARI Defense is usually not the best option, even against a QB who is not good at very many things. This Patriots offense is just going to ground and pound and that mostly will limit interceptions and sacks and all other poor decisions by Cam. This certainly could be a low scoring affair, but it’s still probably not enough incentivization to take this D.
The Cardinals blitz a lot and Cam can’t throw the ball very well, so there’s no way in the world I’m touching Cam or his WRs. He just doesn’t throw enough, even in the best of circumstances. The only part of this NE team worth consideration is James White at 4500. He’s had only 2 weeks above 14 fpts this season and one of those was last week so I don’t know how great I feel about him putting up big numbers. He’s been behind Burkhead all season and Burkhead was just placed on IR, so that’s a usage bump for White. The real problem is that the Pats are addicted to Damien Harris and Sony Michel more than any sane team should be. They’re both fine at best but they’re not good by any means. I’m sure this is schematic because they don’t trust Cam, and yeah, that’s mostly it. James White has a very low floor but if that blitz comes and White is on the field, he could foreseeably see a lot of PPR goodness and if he finds the endzone, 20 fpts is not unreasonable. If Vegas is right about the Pats scoring in the low 20s this week, a James White TD would be very high on the list of receiving TD candidates considering Cam Newton won’t have to throw it farther than a kindergartener for White to take one to the house.
CLE @ JAX
Over/Under 49 CLE -7
Easiest game of the week. Take CLE and the 7.
This is the spot to take the CLE D and your favorite runningback because Cleveland should absolutely run it down the throats of the Jaguars. Nick Chubb has been getting a ton of reps since he’s come back from injury and another 100 yard game is probably expected. He’s getting no work in the passing game but if all you need is 20 fpts he’s probably your guy. At 7100, that price feels a little bit much for the 20 fpts he’s probably going to give you. I think the sharper play is Kareem Hunt. He’s getting a little less work on the ground but he’s also priced at 5600 and unlike Chubb, he IS getting targets. Hunt also hasn’t had a receiving touchdown since week 7 and prior to week 7 he had four receiving touchdowns. Against this Jacksonville defense, a receiving touchdown is very much in play for him and if he can find the end zone on the ground too, he’ll crush value.
Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off all game long. He doesn’t need to pass it to wide receivers at all if he doesn’t want to. This gamescript suggests steering clear of the passing game, so that’s what I’ll do.
The CLE Def is priced at 3100 this week and they’re going to against Mike Glennon who will likely be throwing from behind all game long. Without DJ Chark and Chris Conley, the Jags offense will have the entire weight of the team on James Robinson and Keelan Cole and that’s scary in a very sad way. The Cleveland D should be very highly owned for good reason this week.
Patrick Mahomes 8000 – highest point total, bravado game
Josh Allen 7600 – good matchup, high total, huge rushing upside
Justin Herbert 7200 – high total, throws a ton, best weapons in good matchups
Ryan Fitzpatrick 5500 – if he starts, will pass a ton due to rb injuries, great matchup
Dalvin Cook 9500 – super pricey, but very high usage and should increase with WR1 out
Kareem Hunt 5600 – cheap price, perfect matchup
*Wayne Gallman 5000 – cheap for usage, great matchup, ideal gamescript
*Nyheim Hines 4600 – primary back, crushed in same matchup
James White 4500 – primary pass catching back, against heavy rush could see ton of targets
Brian Hill 4000 – min price, bad Run D, starter!
Tyreek Hill 7800 – decent matchup, on a crush streak, high point total
Keenan Allen 8000 – good matchup in slot, tons of targets
Stefon Diggs 7600 – leads team in targets by 31, RZ targets, wr2 out, high total
Chris Godwin 6000 – high game total, best matchup on team
Devante Parker 5900 – incredible matchup, overdue for blowup game
Demarcus Robinson 3700 – great price, high point total, coming off big week in close game
Andy Isabella 3000 – starting, best D matchup, low adot helps with QB shoulder injury
Gabriel Davis 3000 – Expanded role, high point total, min price
Chad Beebe 3000 – usage bump with WR1 out, plays like Thielen in another body
Travis Kelce 7000 – highest upside at position, high point total
Darren Waller 6000 – great matchup, high point total
Hunter Henry 4800 – great matchup, high total, 2nd in RZ looks
Mike Gesicki 4300 – lower owned, good matchup, with RB injuries gets boost
LAR 3700 – good matchup w/ opp injuries, low owned with chalk elsewhere
NYG 3200 – opp starting backup, lots of injuries on other side
CLE 3100 – every possible reason