NFL DFS 2019 – Week 2 – 091519


Over/Under 47 BAL -13

The Miami Dolphins were so bad in their game against Baltimore that it’s hard to gain any info from the game. Sure the Baltimore defense is good, but they can’t possibly be as great as that MIA team made them appear. This game has been talked about on every betting show this week with some very divided opinions: Some are positive that BAL wins by more than 13 and the other side of the room is positive that ARI covers the spread. Its certainly the most divisive game of the week. I feel good about Mark Andrews and strangely good about Marquise Hollywood Brown doing well. Christian Kirk or Fitzgerald are the only guys I feel good even considering, but I’m not sure I’ll touch them. One thing to note is that BAL blitzes heavy and Kyler Murray is the perfect QB with enough athleticism to avoid the rush. He may not be experienced enough to have the decision-making sharp enough once he avoids the rush, but if he does, this game could be close. That’s a big IF.


Over/Under 45 CIN -1.5

This is kind of a weird game because there’s not much to glean from the SF/Tampa game other than Jameis Winston is terrible and SF only has one legitimate receiver and he’s their TE Kittle. I kinda like the CIN Defense here as weird as that sounds. And I like their offense as well. I havent looked at the Bernard pricing until now…5300…wow…too much. Dalton, Ross and Boyd – these are the only guys to consider from this game and possible the CIN D, because everyone and their mother knows that the ball is going to Kittle.


Over/Under 48 LAC -2.5

Austin Ekeler should get a ton of usage in this game. Probably 15 carries and 7 catches is about right. And if they’re up, maybe even more carries and if they’re down, maybe even more catches. Its a great situation for him. Keenan Allen should get PLENTY of looks too. On the other side of the ball. Golladay is the guy who should ball out.


Over/Under 44.5 GB -3

Holy crap. MIN threw the ball 12 times last game. That is insane. Scary to take a MIN receiver here if this indicates a new offensive philosophy going forward. Their first game was against the Falcons so obviously they were trying to keep the ball out of passing Matt Ryan’s hands, but thats still pretty nuts. MIN run defense is excellent. Holding all 4 RB of ATL to a total of 73 yards. GB pass defense in the short to midrange is poor so assuming the MIN offense doesn’t plan on running the ball all game again, Adam Thielen should get heavy targets and Dalvin Cook should get a ton of catches on short passes. The MIN offense seems so 2-dimensional with Diggs out, so its hard to expect too much out of it. Diggs is probably going to play in this one so it’ll be a wait and see. Jimmy Graham should have a huge day. Davante Adams should have a huge day and so its possible that Aaron Rodgers does well, since MIN does such a great job at controlling the run, Rodgers is going to be throwing.


Over/Under 43.5 HOU -8.5

Duke Johnson appears to be a good play this week as pass catching backs do well against the JAX defense. Hopkins should also have a big game as he dominates the target share by a lot. Coutee is back and I have no idea what that does to the Texans offense. Possibly takes a target or two away from Hopkins, but he had 13 targets last week, 2 in the Red Zone, if anything the addition of Coutee might help reduce the double coverage for Mr. Hopkins. Dede Westbrook should fair well much like Leonard Fournette. I’m really high on Fournette in general and he should get a TD this week. The total seems really low, i think it should definitely go over the 43.5 implied total. I’m not sure Houston wins by 8.5 either. I like JAX to cover.


Over/Under 48 NE -18.5

This game has blowout written in sharpie all over it. It’s going to happen. The Patriots Defense looks like a solid target and Sony Michel should do well if he gets carries. James White might even sneak in a TD or two. AB? Who knows. Josh Gordon? Who knows…Although a lot of smart people are taking Josh Gordon up. Maybe they try to target him a little more while AB learns the playbook and use AB more as a decoy? The offensive scheme for the Patriots will be very difficult to predict. If I were to guess, the patriots get Gordon or AB involved in the passing game early to get to a 14 point lead and then a combination of Michel, White and Burkhead get a lot of reps. Last week Miami’s opponent had 46 carries. Let that sink in. Since Michel had a low week last week, i’d expect he’d get a few more carries so they can help him get some momentum going into week 3.


Over/Under 43.5 BUF -2

Saquon Barkley should get plenty of work as will Sterling Shephard. John Brown, Cole Beasley and Josh Allen Should do well. Vegas has this as a low game total, but I could easily see the scores go above the 43.5 implied total, easily. Both defenses are poor. 
UPDATE: Shephard is in concussion protocol. Might not suit up. Worth checking before game time and there are so many other plays on the board that I wouldn’t even mess with this dude.


Over/Under 46.5 PIT -4

Dang, the Steelers had their doors blown off last week 33 – 3. At least it was the Patriots doing the blowing, we know they’re pretty good. Seattle somehow pulled one out despite a 418 yard passing game from Andy Dalton with a ground game that was basically non-existent. That probably had to do partly with the Mixon injury. Juju Smith-Schuster is due for a big game. Big Ben is due for a big game too but it’s obvious that Moncrief can’t be an effective WR2 and Ben just doesn’t have the same kind of weapons to throw to like in years past. Sometimes you gotta cater to a crazy guy. Also I have no idea what to do with James Conner. He could have a huge game if they get him more involved in the passing game or…he can pass protect a ton in the backfield so that Moncrief can rack up incomplete passes all day. Chris Carson should get a ton of carries and catches (15 carries, 7 targets last game), which will help the PIT passing game. And a lot of people are talking up Tyler Lockett because he basically did nothing last game and he “ran really good routes”. I never get Lockett right, so I won’t go there. Last game PIT game up 13 targets to the opposing team’s WR1 and in this new SEA offense that appears to be DK Metcalf. That’s an awful lot of volume to ignore. Metcalf had about half of those targets last game and he faired really well. I’m not saying he gets 13 but more than 7 is a real possibility if PIT gets up and Wilson has to sling it a little.


Over/Under 44.5 TEN -3

In Week 1 Marlon Mack had 25 carries, 174 yards, 1 TD. Beast. This will be a different challenge against a tough Titans team with their own power RB1. Last week TEN allowed a ton of targets to the WR1 so Ty Hilton should be in for his fair share as should the TE1, whoever that is these days Ebron had 3 targets, Doyle had 2, with 1 each in the RZ. What’s weird about the Titans last game is that the number 1 receiver didnt have a target or a catch. It was a 43 to 13 thrashing of the browns so the Titans didnt have to throw much, but not even a single target is crazy. I expect a big positive regression this week for Corey Davis. If they can get Derrick Henry in the passing game, he could have a good week as well. Too bad Dion Lewis had twice as many targets at the position.


Over/Under 46 DAL -4.5

Dallas blew out the Giants in their last game. That’s mostly because the Giants are terrible, but QB Prescott nonetheless played very well. The Dallas Defense looked top notch too. Against the Eagles Case Keenum threw for 380 yards…wow…yes, Case freakin Keenum. Their RB1 got injured so Adrian Peterson should get some carries and Chris Thompson should see a lot of tosses in his direction against the Dallas pass rush. Chris Thompson, Vernon Davis (if Reed doesn’t play), Trey Quinn are all individually on my radar. I have the most faith in Thompson and Trey Quinn for target shares and a sprinkle of Vernon Davis at the right price. On the Dallas side of the ball, I like Zeke Elliott and Randall Cobb. Zeke’s snap count should increase from last week where he had an even split in the backfield with the RB2. And I like Cobb because he had 8 targets last game, with 2 in the Red Zone and Washington gave up 10 targets to the WR2 position. Gallup had a good game last game, but I think he’s fool’s gold to pick this week. He’s young, the consistency will more than likely not be there. Against the Reskins last week, WR1 had 6 targets, now maybe Dak forces the ball to Amari a little more than the Eagles forced it to their WR1, but I got my money on Cobb this week in this game.


Over/Under 52 KC -8

Second highest point total on the board, so a game we need to target. Both QBs will get yards and should hit the 300 yard bonus. Won’t play either defense. Derek Carr looked great last week. Also, KC scores so much that OAK should rely less on run game and should get up more targets. I don’t think Josh Jacobs gets enough targets to be a factor this week, but a lot of experts are suggesting otherwise. As a result, he’s technically in my pool of players, but I doubt I’ll use him. Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller should be in line for Plenty of targets. They’re pretty much the entire receiving corps. For the KC side, I like, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Pat Mahomes in that order. Last week Damien Williams had 13 rushes and Lesean McCoy had 10 rushes, and with that timeshare its hard to pinpoint which RB to target so i’ll stay away. Travis Kelce is probably my only KC play.


Over/Under 40.5 CHI -2.5

The Denver defense should blitz often as will the bears so quick outlet targets will be the best for both teams. This is the lowest total on the slate so best bet is on CHI Defense, one of the best in the league. David Montgomery should get plenty of touches, but low pass target volume. Allen Robinson / Tarik Cohen should get 6+ targets. I lean towards Cohen as the quick outlet. Against Chicago, Sanders and Fant should receive highest target share for the team but should still be limited to 7 or so targets with less than 75% catch rate because the QB is not great. Trubisky may have decent rushing upside. Would not surprise me if he has 2 rushing TDs.


Over/Under 53 LAR -2.5

In the last game, NO gave up 13 targets to the WR1 (Hopkins) and 5 targets to the pass catching RB1/2 (Duke). No further substantial target shares. Worth noting, they gave up 33 passes, and 25 rushing attempts against. Best to Target a WR#1 and a top 10 pass catching RB1 and QB1 on the Rams. No idea what role Gurley will have going forward, as Malcolm Brown is stealing a lot of his volume and TD equity. Jared Goff is a good target this week and I would expect him to pass it a lot to Robert Woods but Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp could easily steal his TD upside. This offense just has too many great receivers to predict who will get the targets at the right time Just a guess, but I feel the best about Jared Goff hitting all of them with targets and Robert Woods squeezing out the pair of TDs. Gut play for sure. Against the Rams we gotta fire up Alvin Kamara again, he’s so dangerous. Michael Thomas had 13 Targets last game, while the next WR had 7. I definitely expect Drew Brees to have his sights on Thomas all game long, with Kamara intermissions interspersed.


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